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Canary Global risk status

Atmospheric CO₂

Watch · Climate

Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.

WatchWorsening427.2 ppm, +2.00/yr

CO₂ growth reaches 2 ppm a year as El Niño weakens carbon sinks

Why it's at this level

Mauna Loa recorded 427.2 ppm in the week of 25 Oct, 2.00 ppm higher than a year earlier, reaching the 2 ppm/yr Watch line from 1.59 ppm the previous week. Strong El Niño years usually speed up CO₂ growth as land carbon sinks weaken.

What this means for you

Faster CO₂ growth means more warming locked in. There is no immediate personal risk; this is a long-run indicator.

Part of a wider situation

Super El Niño: ONI +2.2: drought in Australia and East Africa, record warmth and weaker carbon sinks.

Why it matters

CO₂ concentration is the main long-run driver of warming; the growth rate shows whether emissions cuts are biting.

What moves it

Fossil emissions, land sinks, El Niño (weakens sinks), wildfires.

ClimateChecked dailyChronicChecked 1 Nov, 11:52 UK. At this level since 1 Nov, 11:52.

Status at each of the last 2 checks

How it's rated

Alert
> 3.0 ppm.
Watch
2.0–3.0 ppm.
Normal
Year-on-year growth < 2.0 ppm.

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