{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"china-economy","name":"China economy","domain":"economy","domain_name":"Economy","status":"normal","trend":"improving","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"Q3 GDP +4.5%; Oct NBS PMI 49.3","value_num":4.5,"summary":"China's factory PMI slipped to 49.3 in October after 4.5% Q3 growth","state":"The official NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below the 50.0 consensus (released 31 Oct), and services also contracted. Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year on year, within the official range, so growth is not yet clearly below target and there is no sign of financial contagion.","for_you":"China is not currently a source of global shock, though weak domestic demand keeps it reliant on exports and trade relations.","rubric_hit":"Growth near official target, stable property sales, no financial contagion.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Trading Economics — China NBS manufacturing PMI","url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence","date":"2026-10-31"},{"title":"Investing.com — China Q3 GDP grows 4.5%","url":"https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/china-q3-gdp-grows-45-slightly-more-than-expected-4956217","date":"2026-10-20"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/china-economy","why":"China is the world's factory and the biggest marginal buyer of commodities; a hard landing would ripple through every supply chain.","drivers":"Property sector, local-government debt, exports and tariffs, deflation, stimulus.","rubric":{"alert":"Hard landing (growth < 3%), financial contagion, or capital controls tightened sharply.","watch":"Deflation, renewed property-developer defaults, or growth clearly below target.","normal":"Growth near official target, stable property sales, no financial contagion."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",4.5]]}