{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"central-banks","name":"Central bank stress","domain":"economy","domain_name":"Economy","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"BoE decision 5 Nov; Fed 3.75–4%","value_num":null,"summary":"Central banks caught between energy-driven inflation and slowing growth","state":"The Fed hiked to 3.75–4% in September and held on 28 Oct in a 10–2 vote; the ECB held at 2.50% on 29 Oct, warning of upside inflation and downside growth risks. The Bank of England decides on 5 Nov, with a hike widely expected. Policymakers face a stagflationary dilemma across the G7.","for_you":"Interest rates are more likely to rise than fall in the near term in the US and UK, which affects mortgages, loans and savings rates.","rubric_hit":"Stagflationary dilemma, open political pressure on a major central bank, or FX intervention by a G7 bank.","situations":["energy-inflation"],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"ECB — Monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026","url":"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html","date":"2026-10-29"},{"title":"investingLive — FOMC decision 28 Oct: rates left unchanged","url":"https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-decision-oct-28/","date":"2026-10-28"},{"title":"Trading Economics — UK 10-year gilt yield","url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield","date":"2026-10-30"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/central-banks","why":"Central banks are the shock absorbers; when they are boxed in or their independence is challenged, markets lose their backstop.","drivers":"Inflation vs growth trade-off, political pressure, currency moves, financial stability.","rubric":{"alert":"Emergency inter-meeting moves, attempt to remove a central-bank head, or coordinated intervention.","watch":"Stagflationary dilemma, open political pressure on a major central bank, or FX intervention by a G7 bank.","normal":"Fed, ECB and BoJ acting orderly and on schedule; independence unquestioned."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",null]]}