{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"banking-stress","name":"Banking system stress","domain":"markets","domain_name":"Markets","status":"normal","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"STLFSI -0.58","value_num":-0.5837,"summary":"Financial stress index below zero; 2026 bank failures have all been small","state":"The St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index was −0.58 in the latest weekly reading (week to 23 Oct), below its long-run average. Six small US banks have failed in 2026, the largest (Nano Banc, 25 Sep) with about $736m in assets; no new failure was reported as of 1 Nov.","for_you":"There is no sign of systemic banking stress. Commercial property refinancing at higher rates remains the pressure point for smaller lenders.","rubric_hit":"St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index < 0, ECB CISS < 0.25, and no notable bank failures or rescues.","situations":[],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"FRED — St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4","date":"2026-10-23"},{"title":"Disruption Banking — Six US banks failed in 2026, the most in a decade","url":"https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/10/01/six-us-banks-failed-in-2026-the-most-in-a-decade-what-that-says-about-the-economy/","date":"2026-10-01"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/banking-stress","why":"Bank failures turn market losses into credit crunches; 2008 and 2023 both began as 'contained' bank problems.","drivers":"Rate shocks to bond portfolios, commercial property losses, deposit flight, private-credit links.","rubric":{"alert":"STLFSI > 1.5, or ECB CISS > 0.45, or a systemically important bank fails or needs rescue, or emergency central-bank facilities launched.","watch":"STLFSI 0–1.5, or ECB CISS 0.25–0.45, or a mid-sized bank failure/rescue, or a large bank under visible funding pressure.","normal":"St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index < 0, ECB CISS < 0.25, and no notable bank failures or rescues."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","normal",-0.5837],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",-0.5837]]}