# Canary — world risk status
as_of 2026-11-01T11:52Z · next run ~17:40 UK · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z (36h for daily-tier signals)
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; attention levels, not forecasts or advice. CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com

World State 44/100 (Strained) · 16 Alert · 29 Watch · 27 Normal · 17 pending first assessment
Headline: Cyclone Murasu is forecast to hit Andhra Pradesh as a severe storm on 3 Nov. Doha talks on the Iran war show little movement as tankers burn near Hormuz, and Russia launched 433 drones at Ukraine on 1 Nov.

## Situations (8 cross-domain events; Alerts below are grouped under them)
- US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock [ALERT, worsening]: War in stalemate with Hormuz largely closed: Brent above $110, TTF above €100, tanker attacks on 29–30 Oct. → alert: middle-east, oil, eu-gas, chokepoints, freight, uk-energy-cap; watch: iran-nuclear, sanctions, semiconductors; pending: gulf-iran
- Russia–Ukraine war and NATO's flank [ALERT, worsening]: 433 Russian drones launched on 1 Nov with Kyiv under emergency power cuts; drone-ship sinkings off Bulgaria. → alert: russia-ukraine; watch: russia-nato; pending: hybrid-threats
- Super El Niño [ALERT, worsening]: ONI +2.2: drought in Australia and East Africa, record warmth and weaker carbon sinks. → alert: enso, global-temp; watch: drought, co2, famine
- Ebola outbreak, DR Congo [ALERT, worsening]: Over 10,000 cases with imported cases in Kenya and Nigeria; a WHO emergency (PHEIC) since May. → alert: ebola; watch: who-emergencies
- Sudan war [ALERT, worsening]: Record drone attacks on civilians in October; the army rejects talks; famine confirmed in 2025. → alert: sudan; watch: famine
- Cyclone Murasu [ALERT, worsening]: GDACS red alert; landfall in Andhra Pradesh, India, forecast for 3 Nov. → alert: other-cyclones
- France: debt stress and protests [ALERT, stable]: OAT–Bund spread near 160bp; mass social protests for a third weekend, spreading to Germany. → alert: sovereign-debt; watch: civil-unrest
- Energy shock feeding inflation [WATCH, worsening]: US CPI at 4.0% on the oil shock; central banks squeezed; a Bank of England rise expected on 5 Nov. → watch: us-inflation, central-banks, uk-rates, bond-volatility

## Other Alerts
- Global food prices [food-prices] worsening: FAO food index at 136, up 5.8% on a year
- Sahel insurgency [sahel] stable: JNIM fuel blockade on Bamako persists; insurgency pressing toward Guinea
- UK terrorism threat level [uk-threat-level] stable: UK terrorism threat level raised to Severe: an attack is highly likely

## Changed in last 24h
- UK weather warnings [uk-weather]: WATCH→NORMAL — No Met Office weather warnings in force (2026-11-01T11:52Z)
- Atmospheric CO₂ [co2]: NORMAL→WATCH — CO₂ growth reaches 2 ppm a year as El Niño weakens carbon sinks (2026-11-01T11:52Z)
- Pacific & Indian cyclones [other-cyclones]: NORMAL→ALERT — GDACS red alert as Cyclone Murasu heads for Andhra Pradesh landfall on 3 Nov (2026-11-01T11:52Z)
- UK weather warnings [uk-weather]: NORMAL→WATCH — Yellow fog warnings across most of England and Wales for 1 Nov (2026-10-31T23:53Z)

## Watch (ids; detail at /s/{id}.md)
bond-volatility, us-inflation, central-banks, critical-minerals, russia-nato, iran-nuclear, korea, trade-war, sanctions, drc-east, myanmar, india-pakistan, nuclear-risk, drought, sea-ice, co2, who-emergencies, mpox, measles, cholera-dengue, cyber, cables-gnss, semiconductors, ai-governance, famine, civil-unrest, uk-rates, gilts, uk-disruption

## Pending first assessment
funding-stress, private-credit, yen-carry, jobless-claims, em-stress, fertiliser, nuclear-plants, hybrid-threats, gulf-iran, other-conflicts, cold-storms, respiratory, medicine-shortages, exploited-vulns, aid-funding, uk-supply-margins, uk-floods

More: https://canary.danleech.com/status.md (all signals) · https://canary.danleech.com/s/{id}.md (detail + sources) · https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/status.json · MCP https://canary.danleech.com/mcp · Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.