{"version":"1.1","domains":[{"id":"markets","name":"Markets","short":"Markets","weight":1.0},{"id":"economy","name":"Economy","short":"Economy","weight":1.0},{"id":"energy","name":"Energy & Commodities","short":"Energy","weight":1.0},{"id":"geopolitics","name":"Geopolitics","short":"Geopolitics","weight":1.2},{"id":"conflict","name":"Armed Conflict","short":"Conflict","weight":1.2},{"id":"hazards","name":"Weather & Hazards","short":"Hazards","weight":1.0},{"id":"climate","name":"Climate","short":"Climate","weight":0.6},{"id":"health","name":"Global Health","short":"Health","weight":1.1},{"id":"tech","name":"Technology & Cyber","short":"Tech","weight":0.8},{"id":"humanitarian","name":"Humanitarian","short":"Humanit.","weight":0.8},{"id":"uk","name":"UK Watch","short":"UK","weight":0.8}],"signals":[{"id":"equity-stress","name":"US equity stress","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["vix","spx"],"why":"The S&P 500 is the world's risk barometer; sharp falls and spiking volatility transmit to pensions, credit and confidence globally.","drivers":"Earnings, interest-rate expectations, liquidity, geopolitical shocks, positioning and leverage.","rubric":{"alert":"VIX > 30, or drawdown > 15%, or a market-wide circuit breaker trips.","watch":"VIX 20–30, or drawdown 5–15%.","normal":"VIX < 20 and S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high < 5%."}},{"id":"ftse","name":"FTSE 100","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["ftse"],"why":"The UK's main index — a gauge of UK-listed multinationals, pensions and sterling-area sentiment.","drivers":"Commodity prices, sterling, global risk appetite, UK policy and banking sector news.","rubric":{"alert":"Drawdown > 12%, or a single-day fall > 4%.","watch":"Drawdown 5–12%, or a single-day fall > 2.5% this week.","normal":"Drawdown from 52-week high < 5% and no single-day fall > 2.5% this week."}},{"id":"bond-volatility","name":"Bond market volatility","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["move","us10y"],"why":"US Treasuries price almost every asset on earth; when the 'risk-free' market becomes volatile, funding and collateral chains strain.","drivers":"Inflation data, Fed path, deficits and auction demand, foreign holder flows, liquidity.","rubric":{"alert":"MOVE > 140, or disorderly Treasury trading (failed/tailed auctions with Fed action, emergency buybacks).","watch":"MOVE 100–140, or US 10y moved ≥ 40bp in a month, or weak auctions flagged.","normal":"MOVE index < 100 and US 10y moved < 40bp over the past month."}},{"id":"credit-spreads","name":"Credit spreads","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["hy_oas"],"why":"High-yield spreads show how much lenders demand to fund weaker companies — an early warning of defaults and credit crunches.","drivers":"Default expectations, risk appetite, rates, private-credit stress, fund outflows.","rubric":{"alert":"HY OAS > 6.0%, or widened > 200bp in a month.","watch":"HY OAS 4.0–6.0%, or widened > 100bp in a month.","normal":"US HY option-adjusted spread < 4.0%."}},{"id":"dollar","name":"US dollar","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["dxy"],"why":"The dollar is the world's funding currency; violent moves squeeze emerging markets and anyone with dollar debts.","drivers":"Fed vs other central banks, safe-haven demand, trade policy, reserve diversification.","rubric":{"alert":"DXY moved > 8% in 3 months, or dollar funding stress (Fed swap lines drawn materially).","watch":"DXY moved 5–8% in 3 months, or outside 90–108.","normal":"DXY moved < 5% over 3 months and is between 90 and 108."}},{"id":"banking-stress","name":"Banking system stress","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["stlfsi","ciss"],"why":"Bank failures turn market losses into credit crunches; 2008 and 2023 both began as 'contained' bank problems.","drivers":"Rate shocks to bond portfolios, commercial property losses, deposit flight, private-credit links.","rubric":{"alert":"STLFSI > 1.5, or ECB CISS > 0.45, or a systemically important bank fails or needs rescue, or emergency central-bank facilities launched.","watch":"STLFSI 0–1.5, or ECB CISS 0.25–0.45, or a mid-sized bank failure/rescue, or a large bank under visible funding pressure.","normal":"St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index < 0, ECB CISS < 0.25, and no notable bank failures or rescues."}},{"id":"gold","name":"Gold (fear gauge)","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["gold"],"why":"Gold is the oldest crisis hedge; disorderly surges signal fear about currencies, inflation or geopolitics.","drivers":"Real interest rates, central-bank buying, geopolitical fear, dollar moves.","rubric":{"alert":"3-month gain > 20%, or a single-week move > 7% either way.","watch":"3-month gain 10–20%, or a fall > 8%.","normal":"3-month change between −8% and +10%."}},{"id":"crypto","name":"Crypto stress","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["btc"],"why":"Crypto is now plumbed into mainstream finance via ETFs and stablecoins; a crash or de-peg can spill into funding markets.","drivers":"Liquidity, leverage, regulation, stablecoin reserves, exchange solvency.","rubric":{"alert":"Drawdown > 45%, or a major stablecoin de-pegs (> 3% for > 24h), or a top-10 exchange fails.","watch":"Drawdown 25–45%, or a top-10 exchange/stablecoin under stress.","normal":"Bitcoin drawdown from 52-week high < 25% and no major stablecoin/exchange incidents."}},{"id":"funding-stress","name":"Dollar funding stress","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["sofr_iorb","repo_ops"],"why":"Overnight dollar funding is the plumbing of global finance; repo-rate spikes came before the market seizures of September 2019 and March 2020.","drivers":"Bank reserves, Treasury issuance and cash balances, quarter-end window dressing, Fed balance-sheet policy.","rubric":{"alert":"SOFR more than 25bp above IORB, or Fed repo operations above $50bn in a day, or emergency Fed liquidity facilities.","watch":"SOFR 10–25bp above IORB on any day in the past week (the top ~10% of weeks since 2024), or Fed repo operations of $15–50bn in a day.","normal":"SOFR less than 10bp above the Fed's interest on reserves (IORB) on every day of the past week, and Fed repo operations under $15bn."}},{"id":"private-credit","name":"Private credit stress","domain":"markets","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Private credit has grown fast outside bank regulation; its losses surface late and can spill into banks, insurers and pension funds.","drivers":"Defaults among leveraged mid-sized borrowers, payment-in-kind interest, fund redemption requests, bank lending to funds.","rubric":{"alert":"Several large funds gate at once, forced asset sales, or losses spreading to banks or insurers.","watch":"A large fund limits redemptions, listed BDCs trade at wide discounts to NAV, or a cluster of borrower defaults with heavy losses.","normal":"No notable fund gates, defaults or markdowns beyond the routine."}},{"id":"yen-carry","name":"Yen & carry trade","domain":"markets","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["usdjpy"],"why":"Cheap yen borrowing funds positions worldwide; a sharp yen rally forces those trades to unwind, as in the global sell-off of August 2024.","drivers":"Bank of Japan policy, the US–Japan rate gap, JGB yields, currency intervention, risk appetite.","rubric":{"alert":"A move of more than 5% in a week or 10% in a month, with stress spreading to other markets.","watch":"A 3–5% move in a week, a 6–10% move in a month, or Japanese currency intervention.","normal":"The yen moves less than 3% against the dollar in a week and less than 6% in a month."}},{"id":"us-recession","name":"US recession risk","domain":"economy","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["sahm","t10y2y"],"why":"A US recession drags world trade, earnings and jobs; it is the single biggest swing factor for the global cycle.","drivers":"Labour market, consumer spending, credit conditions, rates and fiscal policy.","rubric":{"alert":"Sahm ≥ 0.50, or two consecutive negative GDP quarters, or NBER declares recession.","watch":"Sahm 0.30–0.49, or one negative GDP quarter, or payrolls negative in a release.","normal":"Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases."}},{"id":"us-inflation","name":"US inflation","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":["us_cpi"],"why":"Inflation sets Fed policy and thus global borrowing costs; a resurgence would keep rates high for everyone.","drivers":"Energy, tariffs, wages, housing costs, supply chains.","rubric":{"alert":"CPI > 4.5%.","watch":"CPI 3.0–4.5%, or rising for 3 consecutive months.","normal":"Headline CPI y/y < 3.0%."}},{"id":"euro-growth","name":"Euro-area economy","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The euro area is the UK's largest trading partner; stagnation there hits UK exports and European markets.","drivers":"Energy prices, German industry, ECB policy, fiscal rules, China demand.","rubric":{"alert":"Technical recession, or PMI < 45, or bond-spread fragmentation forcing ECB action.","watch":"Stagnation (GDP ~0), or composite PMI 45–50.","normal":"Positive GDP growth and composite PMI > 50."}},{"id":"china-economy","name":"China economy","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"China is the world's factory and the biggest marginal buyer of commodities; a hard landing would ripple through every supply chain.","drivers":"Property sector, local-government debt, exports and tariffs, deflation, stimulus.","rubric":{"alert":"Hard landing (growth < 3%), financial contagion, or capital controls tightened sharply.","watch":"Deflation, renewed property-developer defaults, or growth clearly below target.","normal":"Growth near official target, stable property sales, no financial contagion."}},{"id":"central-banks","name":"Central bank stress","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Central banks are the shock absorbers; when they are boxed in or their independence is challenged, markets lose their backstop.","drivers":"Inflation vs growth trade-off, political pressure, currency moves, financial stability.","rubric":{"alert":"Emergency inter-meeting moves, attempt to remove a central-bank head, or coordinated intervention.","watch":"Stagflationary dilemma, open political pressure on a major central bank, or FX intervention by a G7 bank.","normal":"Fed, ECB and BoJ acting orderly and on schedule; independence unquestioned."}},{"id":"sovereign-debt","name":"Sovereign debt stress","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"When big governments struggle to borrow, it raises everyone's costs and can force sudden austerity or money-printing.","drivers":"Deficits, auction demand, ratings actions, political shocks, long-end yields.","rubric":{"alert":"Failed G7 auction, emergency central-bank purchases, France–Bund > 150bp, or Italy–Bund > 250bp.","watch":"G7 30-year yields at multi-decade highs, a G7 downgrade, or France–Bund 80–150bp / Italy–Bund 150–250bp.","normal":"Auctions orderly; France–Bund spread < 80bp; Italy–Bund < 150bp; no G7 downgrades this month."}},{"id":"global-pmi","name":"Global activity (PMI)","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Purchasing-manager surveys are the fastest read on whether the world economy is expanding or contracting.","drivers":"Orders, inventories, trade policy, energy costs, credit conditions.","rubric":{"alert":"Global composite < 49.","watch":"Global composite 49–51, or manufacturing < 49.","normal":"J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI > 51."}},{"id":"jobless-claims","name":"US jobless claims","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":["icsa"],"why":"Weekly claims are the earliest hard data on US layoffs; a sustained rise usually comes before the unemployment rate turns.","drivers":"Layoffs, hiring freezes, federal job cuts, storms, strikes and seasonal quirks.","rubric":{"alert":"More than 30% above its 52-week low.","watch":"15–30% above its 52-week low.","normal":"The 4-week average of initial claims is less than 15% above its 52-week low."}},{"id":"em-stress","name":"Emerging-market stress","domain":"economy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Energy-importing and heavily indebted emerging economies crack first in oil shocks and strong-dollar periods, with knock-on defaults and unrest.","drivers":"Oil and food import bills, dollar strength, FX reserves, debt maturities, IMF programmes.","rubric":{"alert":"A sovereign default or capital controls in a major emerging economy, or several in crisis at once.","watch":"A major emerging economy's currency falls more than 10% in a month, its reserves fall fast, or it seeks emergency IMF support.","normal":"No major emerging economy in acute currency or debt distress."}},{"id":"oil","name":"Oil (Brent)","domain":"energy","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["brent"],"why":"Oil feeds inflation, transport and household budgets; price spikes have preceded most post-war recessions.","drivers":"OPEC+ output, Middle East supply risk, sanctions, demand, inventories, shipping disruption.","rubric":{"alert":"Brent > $110, or 1-month change > +30%, or a major physical supply outage (> 2 mb/d).","watch":"Brent $85–110, or 1-month change +15–30%.","normal":"Brent < $85 and 1-month change < +15%."}},{"id":"eu-gas","name":"European gas (TTF)","domain":"energy","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["ttf"],"why":"European gas sets UK and EU power prices and heating bills; Europe has had no cushion since losing Russian pipeline gas.","drivers":"LNG supply, storage levels, weather, Norwegian outages, Middle East LNG routes.","rubric":{"alert":"TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week).","watch":"TTF €40–70/MWh, or storage > 10 points below seasonal norm.","normal":"TTF < €40/MWh and EU storage at or above seasonal norm."}},{"id":"chokepoints","name":"Shipping chokepoints","domain":"energy","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Around 30% of seaborne oil and much container trade passes Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb/Suez, Panama and Malacca; disruption raises prices worldwide.","drivers":"Houthi/Iran attacks, war-risk insurance, drought (Panama), naval incidents, piracy.","rubric":{"alert":"Hormuz traffic materially impeded, or any chokepoint closed, or two or more disrupted at once.","watch":"One chokepoint disrupted (attacks, large-scale diversions, draught restrictions).","normal":"All major chokepoints operating normally."}},{"id":"freight","name":"Container freight","domain":"energy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Container rates feed through to goods prices months later; spikes are an early inflation and supply-chain warning.","drivers":"Chokepoint diversions, capacity, demand, port congestion, tariffs front-running.","rubric":{"alert":"WCI > $4,000/FEU, or > +60% in a month.","watch":"WCI $2,500–4,000/FEU, or +30–60% in a month.","normal":"Drewry World Container Index < $2,500/FEU and 1-month change < +30%."}},{"id":"food-prices","name":"Global food prices","domain":"energy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Food prices drive inflation, hunger and political unrest; poorer countries spend up to half of income on food.","drivers":"Harvests, weather, fertiliser and energy costs, export bans, conflict in breadbaskets.","rubric":{"alert":"FFPI > 135, or multiple major exporters ban exports of a staple.","watch":"FFPI 120–135, or y/y > +5%, or a major exporter restricts exports.","normal":"FAO Food Price Index < 120 and y/y change < +5%."}},{"id":"critical-minerals","name":"Critical minerals","domain":"energy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Rare earths, gallium, germanium and graphite are chokepoints for chips, EVs and defence — and China dominates processing.","drivers":"Export controls, trade disputes, mine outages, stockpiling.","rubric":{"alert":"Export bans in force that are causing reported production stoppages outside China.","watch":"New export controls announced or licensing slowed.","normal":"No new export restrictions in the past month."}},{"id":"fertiliser","name":"Fertiliser supply","domain":"energy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Fertiliser prices lead food prices by months; much of the world's urea and ammonia is exported from Russia, the Gulf and China.","drivers":"Gas prices, Gulf shipping, export bans and quotas, sanctions, planting seasons.","rubric":{"alert":"Urea up more than 60% in three months, several major exporters restricting at once, or a key export route closed.","watch":"Urea up more than 30% in three months, or a major exporter restricts exports.","normal":"Urea and ammonia prices within their normal range; no major export restrictions."}},{"id":"nuclear-plants","name":"Nuclear plant safety","domain":"energy","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Fighting near nuclear power plants risks a radiological release; the IAEA reports on Zaporizhzhia and other plants in or near war zones.","drivers":"Off-site power losses, strikes near plants, staffing, cooling water, military occupation.","rubric":{"alert":"Damage to safety-critical systems, an INES level 2 or higher event, or a radiological release.","watch":"A plant loses all off-site power, strikes land near a plant, or the IAEA reports a deteriorating safety situation.","normal":"No new IAEA safety concerns at plants in or near conflict zones."}},{"id":"us-china","name":"US–China / Taiwan","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The world's two largest economies; a Taiwan crisis would halt most advanced chip supply and risk great-power war.","drivers":"PLA exercises, tariffs and tech controls, diplomacy, Taiwan politics, South China Sea incidents.","rubric":{"alert":"Blockade or 'quarantine' of Taiwan, military clash, or severed diplomatic channels.","watch":"Large-scale PLA exercises around Taiwan, major new sanctions/controls, or a naval/air incident.","normal":"Managed relations; dialogue channels open; routine PLA activity."}},{"id":"russia-nato","name":"Russia–NATO","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Direct Russia–NATO confrontation is the most likely path to a European war involving the UK.","drivers":"Airspace and drone incursions, sabotage, Baltic incidents, nuclear signalling, Ukraine war spillover.","rubric":{"alert":"Article 4 consultations, a direct military clash, or an attack on NATO territory.","watch":"Airspace/drone violations, sabotage attributed to Russia, or explicit threats against members.","normal":"No notable incidents on NATO territory in the past two weeks."}},{"id":"iran-nuclear","name":"Iran nuclear programme","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"A nuclear-armed Iran — or strikes to prevent one — could ignite the Gulf and send oil far higher.","drivers":"Enrichment levels, IAEA access, Israeli/US military posture, snapback sanctions, talks.","rubric":{"alert":"Strikes on nuclear sites, NPT withdrawal, or evidence of weaponisation.","watch":"Enrichment at ≥ 60% or inspector access curtailed, or credible strike threats.","normal":"IAEA access and active diplomacy; no escalation."}},{"id":"korea","name":"Korean peninsula","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"North Korea is a nuclear state with ICBMs; tension here involves the US, China, Japan and Russia simultaneously.","drivers":"Missile tests, Russia–DPRK military cooperation, US–ROK exercises, border incidents.","rubric":{"alert":"Nuclear test, ICBM overflight of Japan, or military clash.","watch":"Ballistic or cruise missile launches, or troop deployments abroad.","normal":"No missile launches in two weeks; no border incidents."}},{"id":"trade-war","name":"Trade war & tariffs","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Tariffs raise prices, reroute supply chains and slow growth; escalation cycles hurt export-heavy economies like the UK's partners.","drivers":"US tariff policy, retaliation, court rulings, trade deals, WTO disputes.","rubric":{"alert":"Broad new tariffs in force with retaliation under way, or US average effective tariff rising sharply.","watch":"New major tariffs announced or threatened between large economies.","normal":"Tariff regime stable; no new major measures in the past two weeks."}},{"id":"sanctions","name":"Sanctions & coercion","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Sanctions are now a frontline weapon; secondary sanctions and asset seizures fragment global finance and trade.","drivers":"Russia/Iran sanctions packages, secondary sanctions, frozen-asset decisions, export controls.","rubric":{"alert":"Major economy cut off from payment systems, or large-scale seizure of sovereign assets.","watch":"Major new packages, secondary-sanction threats on large economies, or asset-seizure moves.","normal":"No major new sanctions packages this week."}},{"id":"political-instability","name":"Political instability","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Coups, contested elections and constitutional crises in large economies unsettle markets, alliances and policy.","drivers":"Elections, government collapses, coups, emergency rule, mass protest movements.","rubric":{"alert":"Coup or constitutional crisis in a G20 country, or deadly unrest threatening a G20 government.","watch":"Government collapse or contested election in a G20 country, or a coup anywhere.","normal":"No G20 government collapse, contested election or coup in the past month."}},{"id":"hybrid-threats","name":"Europe hybrid attacks","domain":"geopolitics","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Sabotage, arson and drone incursions over airports and bases are how state confrontation reaches daily life in the UK and Europe.","drivers":"Russia–NATO tensions, drone and cyber capabilities, proxy recruitment, elections.","rubric":{"alert":"Repeated airport or infrastructure shutdowns across several countries, or sabotage causing casualties or a major outage.","watch":"Drone incursions close an airport or military base, or a sabotage incident is attributed to a state.","normal":"No significant attributed sabotage or airspace incursions in Europe this week."}},{"id":"russia-ukraine","name":"Russia–Ukraine","domain":"conflict","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Europe's largest war since 1945 shapes European security, energy, food exports and defence budgets.","drivers":"Front-line offensives, strike campaigns on energy, Western aid, negotiations, nuclear plant safety.","rubric":{"alert":"Significant escalation — major new offensive, mass-casualty strikes, a nuclear-plant safety incident, or new state involvement.","watch":"Active war at sustained intensity, or a ceasefire under strain.","normal":"Ceasefire or peace deal holding."}},{"id":"middle-east","name":"Israel, Gaza & region","domain":"conflict","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Conflict involving Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen threatens civilians, shipping and wider escalation. Direct hostilities with Iran are tracked under Gulf / US–Iran war.","drivers":"Ceasefire status, Iran-linked groups, hostage talks, humanitarian access, US posture.","rubric":{"alert":"Multi-front escalation, major cross-border strikes between Israel and its neighbours, or mass-casualty events.","watch":"Ongoing hostilities on one front, or a ceasefire repeatedly violated.","normal":"Ceasefires holding across fronts (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen)."}},{"id":"sudan","name":"Sudan","domain":"conflict","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The world's largest displacement and hunger crisis; regional spillover into Chad, South Sudan and the Red Sea.","drivers":"SAF–RSF fighting, sieges, foreign arms supplies, aid access, famine.","rubric":{"alert":"Major sieges or massacres reported, or famine spreading to new areas.","watch":"Active war at sustained intensity.","normal":"Ceasefire holding and aid flowing."}},{"id":"drc-east","name":"DR Congo (east)","domain":"conflict","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"A long war over mineral-rich territory, drawing in Rwanda and threatening a wider Great Lakes conflict.","drivers":"M23/AFC advances, Rwanda involvement, peace deals, mineral trade.","rubric":{"alert":"Capture of a major city, or direct interstate fighting.","watch":"Active fighting or a fragile ceasefire.","normal":"Peace agreements holding; no major offensives."}},{"id":"sahel","name":"Sahel insurgency","domain":"conflict","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Jihadist groups control growing territory across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, driving displacement and coastal-state spillover.","drivers":"JNIM/IS-Sahel offensives, juntas, Russian forces, blockades, coastal-state attacks.","rubric":{"alert":"Blockade or fall of a capital or major city, or mass-casualty attacks spreading to coastal states.","watch":"Sustained insurgency at current levels.","normal":"Declining violence trend."}},{"id":"myanmar","name":"Myanmar","domain":"conflict","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"A multi-sided civil war affecting 50 million people, with spillover to China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.","drivers":"Resistance offensives, junta airstrikes, Chinese mediation, elections, humanitarian access.","rubric":{"alert":"Major city falls, mass-casualty airstrikes, or cross-border escalation.","watch":"Civil war at sustained intensity.","normal":"Nationwide ceasefire holding."}},{"id":"india-pakistan","name":"India–Pakistan","domain":"conflict","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a history of rapid escalation after terrorist attacks.","drivers":"Kashmir attacks, Line of Control firing, water disputes (Indus), domestic politics.","rubric":{"alert":"Cross-border military strikes or mobilisation.","watch":"Ceasefire violations, a major terrorist attack with blame assigned, or treaty suspensions.","normal":"Ceasefire holding along the Line of Control; no major attacks."}},{"id":"nuclear-risk","name":"Nuclear risk","domain":"conflict","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Nuclear use anywhere would be a civilisational shock; arms-control treaties are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.","drivers":"Threats in active wars, testing, doctrine changes, arms-control collapse, proliferation.","rubric":{"alert":"A nuclear test, changes in deployment/alert levels, or threatened use in an active conflict.","watch":"Explicit threats, unusual exercises, doctrine changes, or arms-control lapses without replacement.","normal":"No explicit nuclear threats or tests; arms-control dialogue active."}},{"id":"gulf-iran","name":"Gulf / US–Iran war","domain":"conflict","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Direct hostilities between Iran and the US or Israel threaten Gulf energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region.","drivers":"Strikes and retaliation, attacks on shipping and Gulf states, mediation and ceasefire talks, US force posture.","rubric":{"alert":"Active strikes between states, attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or shipping, or the Strait of Hormuz substantially closed.","watch":"A ceasefire or stalemate with sporadic strikes, or credible threats of renewed strikes.","normal":"No direct state-on-state hostilities; diplomacy active."}},{"id":"other-conflicts","name":"Other armed conflicts","domain":"conflict","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Wars and flashpoints outside Canary's named list — such as Yemen, Haiti, Ethiopia–Eritrea, Afghanistan–Pakistan, Libya and Somalia — can escalate with little warning.","drivers":"Coups, border clashes, insurgencies, state collapse, outside intervention.","rubric":{"alert":"A new interstate war, a capital under attack, or mass-atrocity warnings in a conflict not tracked elsewhere.","watch":"Crisis Group's CrisisWatch or credible reporting shows a significant deterioration in a conflict not tracked elsewhere.","normal":"No conflict outside the named list is escalating sharply."}},{"id":"atlantic-cyclones","name":"Atlantic hurricanes","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["gdacs"],"why":"Atlantic hurricanes hit the US Gulf coast, Caribbean and Central America — and refinery and insurance markets with them.","drivers":"Sea-surface temperatures, ENSO, wind shear, season timing (Jun–Nov peak Aug–Oct).","rubric":{"alert":"Category 3+ landfall expected within 72 hours or occurring.","watch":"Tropical storm or hurricane threatening land within 5 days.","normal":"No hurricane active, or none threatening land within 5 days."}},{"id":"other-cyclones","name":"Pacific & Indian cyclones","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["gdacs"],"why":"Typhoons and cyclones are the deadliest weather events, threatening densely populated coasts in Asia and the Indian Ocean.","drivers":"Ocean heat, ENSO phase, season (W Pacific peaks Jul–Oct; N Indian Apr–Jun & Oct–Dec).","rubric":{"alert":"GDACS red cyclone alert, or a super-typhoon/severe cyclone landfall on a populated coast.","watch":"GDACS orange cyclone alert, or a typhoon/cyclone threatening land within 72h.","normal":"No GDACS orange/red tropical cyclone alerts."}},{"id":"heat","name":"Extreme heat","domain":"hazards","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Heat is the deadliest weather hazard globally, straining power grids, crops and health systems.","drivers":"Heat domes, climate warming, season, humidity, urban heat islands.","rubric":{"alert":"Deadly heatwave with top-tier official warnings across a large population.","watch":"Heatwave warnings across a major region, or national temperature records.","normal":"No major heatwaves affecting large populations."}},{"id":"wildfires","name":"Wildfires","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["gdacs"],"why":"Large fires destroy towns, cause hazardous smoke over continents and drive insurance losses.","drivers":"Drought, heat, wind, fuel load, ignition, season.","rubric":{"alert":"Fires burning into populated areas with fatalities or mass evacuation, or GDACS red.","watch":"Large fires forcing evacuations, or GDACS orange.","normal":"No GDACS orange/red wildfire alerts and no major evacuations."}},{"id":"floods","name":"Major floods","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["gdacs"],"why":"Floods affect more people than any other hazard, displacing millions each year.","drivers":"Extreme rainfall, monsoons, cyclones, snowmelt, dam failures.","rubric":{"alert":"GDACS red flood alert, or > 100 deaths in a single event.","watch":"GDACS orange flood alert, or a flood displacing > 50,000.","normal":"No GDACS orange/red flood alerts."}},{"id":"earthquakes","name":"Earthquakes & tsunami","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["quakes"],"why":"Large earthquakes can kill thousands in seconds and disrupt global supply chains (chips, cars).","drivers":"Tectonics — unpredictable; impact depends on depth, location and building standards.","rubric":{"alert":"PAGER red, or a tsunami causing damage.","watch":"M7+ in the past 7 days, or PAGER orange, or a tsunami warning issued.","normal":"No USGS PAGER orange/red alert and no M7+ in the past 7 days."}},{"id":"volcanic","name":"Volcanic & aviation ash","domain":"hazards","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Major eruptions ground flights (Iceland 2010) and can cool the climate for years.","drivers":"Volcanic unrest; impact depends on ash plume height and jet-stream direction.","rubric":{"alert":"Major airspace closures from ash, or a VEI 4+ eruption.","watch":"Aviation colour code orange/red at a volcano near major air routes, or a large eruption.","normal":"No aviation colour code red; no large eruptions."}},{"id":"drought","name":"Drought","domain":"hazards","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Drought slowly destroys harvests, hydropower and river shipping, and drives famine and migration.","drivers":"Rainfall deficits, heat, ENSO, groundwater depletion.","rubric":{"alert":"Drought driving famine conditions, a major exporter's harvest failure, or monsoon failure across a major breadbasket.","watch":"Severe drought in a major crop region, a major river at record low, or a monsoon running more than 20% below normal.","normal":"No major breadbasket in severe drought."}},{"id":"space-weather","name":"Space weather","domain":"hazards","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["swpc"],"why":"Severe solar storms can disrupt satellites, GPS, HF radio and power grids.","drivers":"Solar flares and coronal mass ejections; solar cycle 25 is near its peak.","rubric":{"alert":"G4+, S3+ or R4+.","watch":"G3, S2 or R3.","normal":"NOAA scales G0–G2, S0–S1, R0–R2."}},{"id":"cold-storms","name":"Cold waves & winter storms","domain":"hazards","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Severe cold and winter storms kill, cut power and spike gas demand, as in Texas in 2021; they matter most when energy supplies are tight.","drivers":"Polar vortex disruption, blocking highs, ENSO, Arctic outbreaks.","rubric":{"alert":"Deadly cold or winter storms with widespread power or gas outages.","watch":"Top-tier cold or winter-storm warnings across a major region, or a cold wave lifting gas demand sharply.","normal":"No major cold wave or winter storm affecting large populations."}},{"id":"global-temp","name":"Global temperature","domain":"climate","tier":"daily","horizon":"chronic","metrics":["global_temp"],"why":"Global temperature is the master climate variable; each tenth of a degree raises extreme-weather risk.","drivers":"Greenhouse gases, El Niño/La Niña, aerosols, solar cycle.","rubric":{"alert":"> +1.6°C, or a record high for the calendar date.","watch":"+1.3°C to +1.6°C.","normal":"Daily global anomaly < +1.3°C above pre-industrial (ERA5 vs 1991–2020 + 0.88°C)."}},{"id":"sea-ice","name":"Polar sea ice","domain":"climate","tier":"daily","horizon":"chronic","metrics":["sea_ice"],"why":"Sea ice reflects sunlight and regulates ocean circulation; record lows accelerate warming.","drivers":"Air and ocean temperatures, winds, season.","rubric":{"alert":"Either pole at a record low for the calendar date.","watch":"Either pole below −1.0 million km².","normal":"Arctic and Antarctic extent anomalies both above −1.0 million km² vs 1981–2010."}},{"id":"co2","name":"Atmospheric CO₂","domain":"climate","tier":"daily","horizon":"chronic","metrics":["co2"],"why":"CO₂ concentration is the main long-run driver of warming; the growth rate shows whether emissions cuts are biting.","drivers":"Fossil emissions, land sinks, El Niño (weakens sinks), wildfires.","rubric":{"alert":"> 3.0 ppm.","watch":"2.0–3.0 ppm.","normal":"Year-on-year growth < 2.0 ppm."}},{"id":"enso","name":"El Niño / La Niña","domain":"climate","tier":"daily","horizon":"seasonal","metrics":["oni"],"why":"ENSO reshapes global weather for a year at a time — droughts, floods, hurricanes and crop yields.","drivers":"Pacific trade winds and ocean heat content.","rubric":{"alert":"|ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event).","watch":"|ONI| 0.5–1.5 (weak/moderate event).","normal":"Oceanic Niño Index between −0.5 and +0.5 (neutral)."}},{"id":"coral-bleaching","name":"Coral bleaching","domain":"climate","tier":"daily","horizon":"chronic","metrics":[],"why":"Reefs support a quarter of marine species and coastal economies; mass bleaching is a direct sign of ocean heat stress.","drivers":"Marine heatwaves, El Niño, warming trend.","rubric":{"alert":"Bleaching extent at record levels with active new alerts in the past month.","watch":"Global bleaching event in progress, or regional mass bleaching.","normal":"No global bleaching event in progress."}},{"id":"who-emergencies","name":"WHO emergencies","domain":"health","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"A WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or 'pandemic emergency' is the top official global health alarm.","drivers":"Outbreak spread, IHR Emergency Committee decisions.","rubric":{"alert":"A new PHEIC declared in the past 30 days, or a pandemic emergency declared.","watch":"A PHEIC in effect, or an IHR Emergency Committee convened.","normal":"No PHEIC in effect other than long-running polio."}},{"id":"ebola","name":"Ebola & haemorrhagic fevers","domain":"health","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Ebola, Marburg and similar viruses kill a large share of those infected; outbreaks that reach cities or cross borders can overwhelm health systems.","drivers":"Surveillance and contact tracing, vaccine availability (none licensed for some strains), conflict, cross-border travel, health-worker infections.","rubric":{"alert":"More than 1,000 cases, or spread to a new country in the past 30 days.","watch":"An active outbreak contained within one country, or fewer than 1,000 cases.","normal":"No active Ebola/Marburg outbreak, or outbreaks declining with no new countries affected in 60 days."}},{"id":"h5n1","name":"H5N1 bird flu","domain":"health","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"H5N1 is the flu strain scientists most fear could become a pandemic; it has spread to mammals and dairy cattle.","drivers":"Human cases, mammal-to-mammal spread, mutations, surveillance.","rubric":{"alert":"Confirmed sustained human-to-human transmission.","watch":"Human clusters under investigation, rising human cases, or new mammalian species spread.","normal":"Sporadic animal-to-human cases only."}},{"id":"mpox","name":"Mpox","domain":"health","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Clade I mpox is more severe and has spread beyond Central Africa.","drivers":"Case growth, vaccine access, travel-linked spread.","rubric":{"alert":"PHEIC in effect with accelerating growth.","watch":"Clade I spreading outside Africa or a regional surge.","normal":"Cases declining; no PHEIC."}},{"id":"measles","name":"Measles & vaccine-preventable","domain":"health","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Falling vaccination rates are bringing back diseases once eliminated; measles is the canary for the rest.","drivers":"Vaccine coverage, misinformation, health-system disruption.","rubric":{"alert":"Multi-country surge with rising deaths, or polio/diphtheria resurgence in high-income countries.","watch":"Large outbreaks in high-income countries, or loss of elimination status.","normal":"No large outbreaks in high-income countries."}},{"id":"cholera-dengue","name":"Cholera & mosquito-borne","domain":"health","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Climate-sensitive diseases — cholera, dengue, chikungunya, Oropouche, West Nile and yellow fever — are hitting record levels and reaching new regions.","drivers":"Conflict, floods, heat, El Niño, water and sanitation, mosquito range expansion.","rubric":{"alert":"Large outbreaks with high mortality in conflict zones, or a WHO grade 3 emergency.","watch":"Record-level seasons, or local transmission in countries where the disease was not established (including Europe).","normal":"Seasonal levels."}},{"id":"novel-outbreaks","name":"Novel / unexplained outbreaks","domain":"health","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The next pandemic will start as an unexplained cluster; early signals matter.","drivers":"Surveillance reports, unknown illnesses, new pathogens.","rubric":{"alert":"A novel pathogen with evidence of human-to-human spread across borders.","watch":"An unexplained cluster or novel pathogen under investigation.","normal":"No unexplained clusters under international investigation."}},{"id":"respiratory","name":"Respiratory variants & flu","domain":"health","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Known viruses change; a new COVID-19 variant or a severe flu strain can strain health systems without being 'novel'.","drivers":"Viral evolution, waning immunity, seasonal patterns, vaccine match.","rubric":{"alert":"WHO designates a variant of concern, or flu or COVID-19 hospitalisations strain several countries' health systems.","watch":"WHO designates a new variant of interest, or a hemisphere's flu season is unusually early or severe.","normal":"No WHO variant of interest rising fast; flu seasons of normal severity."}},{"id":"medicine-shortages","name":"Medicine shortages","domain":"health","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Shipping disruption, factory failures and export curbs can leave essential medicines short, as with US IV fluids after Hurricane Helene in 2024.","drivers":"Manufacturing concentrated in India and China, shipping, raw materials, demand spikes, regulation.","rubric":{"alert":"Shortages forcing widespread rationing or cancelled treatment across major health systems.","watch":"A shortage of an essential medicine or supply across several countries, or a UK Serious Shortage Protocol for a widely used medicine.","normal":"No widespread shortages of essential medicines in major health systems."}},{"id":"cyber","name":"Major cyber incidents","domain":"tech","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Ransomware and state hacking now shut down hospitals, retailers, carmakers and airports for weeks.","drivers":"Ransomware gangs, state actors, zero-days, supply-chain compromises.","rubric":{"alert":"National-scale attack on critical infrastructure (power, health, finance), or a destructive state-attributed attack.","watch":"Ransomware or attack disrupting a large company or critical service, or a mass-exploited zero-day.","normal":"No major incidents disrupting critical services this week."}},{"id":"outages","name":"Internet & cloud outages","domain":"tech","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"A handful of cloud and CDN providers carry much of the internet; one bad update can halt airlines, banks and payments.","drivers":"Software updates, configuration errors, attacks, power failures.","rubric":{"alert":"Multi-hour global outage hitting payments, airlines or emergency services, ongoing or within 24h.","watch":"A major cloud/CDN/payments outage > 2h in the past 48h.","normal":"No major multi-hour outages in the past 48h."}},{"id":"cables-gnss","name":"Undersea cables & GPS","domain":"tech","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Subsea cables carry ~99% of intercontinental data; GPS jamming affects aviation and shipping.","drivers":"Anchor drags, sabotage, conflict-zone jamming and spoofing.","rubric":{"alert":"Multiple cable cuts isolating a region, or confirmed sabotage.","watch":"Cable damage incident, or widespread GNSS interference affecting aviation.","normal":"No new cable cuts or major jamming escalations."}},{"id":"semiconductors","name":"Chip supply","domain":"tech","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Advanced chips underpin everything from phones to AI to weapons; supply is concentrated in Taiwan and Korea.","drivers":"Export controls, Taiwan risk, fab outages, AI demand, materials.","rubric":{"alert":"Major disruption to TSMC/Samsung output, or controls halting a major supply chain.","watch":"New export controls, shortages reported in key segments, or a fab outage.","normal":"Supply normal; no new major controls."}},{"id":"ai-governance","name":"AI incidents & governance","domain":"tech","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Powerful AI systems are being deployed faster than safeguards; serious incidents or governance breakdowns carry systemic risk.","drivers":"Model releases, misuse incidents, regulation, compute controls, deepfakes in elections.","rubric":{"alert":"AI-enabled attack on critical infrastructure, or AI-attributed mass harm event.","watch":"A significant AI misuse incident, major deepfake disruption, or regulatory confrontation.","normal":"No serious AI-attributed harm events or governance shocks this week."}},{"id":"exploited-vulns","name":"Exploited vulnerabilities","domain":"tech","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["kev"],"why":"Mass exploitation of a flaw in widely used software usually starts days or weeks before the breach headlines.","drivers":"Zero-days in edge devices and enterprise software, exploit sharing, slow patching, ransomware crews.","rubric":{"alert":"An emergency directive or equivalent for mass exploitation of a ubiquitous product, with confirmed widespread compromise.","watch":"11 or more added in 7 days (the busiest ~5% of weeks since 2024), or mass exploitation of a widely used product.","normal":"Fewer than 11 vulnerabilities added to CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogue in the past 7 days."}},{"id":"famine","name":"Famine","domain":"humanitarian","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Famine is the most extreme humanitarian failure, almost always man-made by conflict.","drivers":"War, sieges, aid access, harvest failure, funding cuts.","rubric":{"alert":"Famine (IPC Phase 5) confirmed in at least one area.","watch":"IPC Phase 5 projected or 'risk of famine' alerts.","normal":"No IPC Phase 5 (Famine) classifications or projections."}},{"id":"displacement","name":"Forced displacement","domain":"humanitarian","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Over 120 million people are forcibly displaced; new mass displacement drives regional instability and migration politics.","drivers":"Conflict, disasters, persecution, economic collapse.","rubric":{"alert":"A new event displacing > 1 million in a month.","watch":"A new event displacing > 500,000 people in a month.","normal":"No new mass displacement events this month."}},{"id":"civil-unrest","name":"Civil unrest","domain":"humanitarian","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Mass protest and state crackdowns signal political fragility and can topple governments.","drivers":"Cost of living, elections, corruption, repression, food and fuel prices.","rubric":{"alert":"Deadly nationwide unrest or a state crackdown in a major country.","watch":"Significant protests in several countries or deadly unrest in one.","normal":"No deadly mass unrest in large countries."}},{"id":"aid-funding","name":"Humanitarian funding gap","domain":"humanitarian","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"When appeals go unfunded, food aid and health services are cut first; funding gaps lead famine and displacement by months.","drivers":"Donor budgets and aid cuts, new crises competing for funds, access constraints.","rubric":{"alert":"Pipeline breaks forcing large-scale suspension of food or health aid in famine-risk countries.","watch":"Funding more than 10 percentage points behind recent years at the same point, or major ration cuts announced.","normal":"UN global appeal funding in line with recent years; no major ration cuts."}},{"id":"uk-rates","name":"UK inflation & rates","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"UK inflation and the Bank Rate set mortgage, savings and business borrowing costs for the whole country.","drivers":"Energy prices, wages, services inflation, sterling, global rates.","rubric":{"alert":"CPI > 4.0%, or an emergency BoE move.","watch":"CPI 2.5–4.0%, or the BoE reversing course.","normal":"CPI ≤ 2.5% and Bank of England moving gradually or on hold."}},{"id":"gilts","name":"Gilt market","domain":"uk","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Gilt yields set UK mortgage rates and the government's borrowing costs; the 2022 LDI crisis showed how fast it can break.","drivers":"Fiscal credibility, BoE policy, inflation, global bond moves, pension-fund flows.","rubric":{"alert":"BoE intervention, or 10y moved > 75bp in a month.","watch":"30y gilt at multi-decade highs, or 10y moved 40–75bp in a month, or a weak auction.","normal":"10y gilt moved < 40bp in a month and auctions orderly."}},{"id":"uk-energy-cap","name":"UK energy price cap","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The Ofgem cap sets bills for most UK households — a direct cost-of-living signal.","drivers":"Wholesale gas and power prices, network costs, policy levies.","rubric":{"alert":"Cap > £2,200, or forecast rise ≥ 20%.","watch":"Cap £1,700–2,200, or forecast rise ≥ 5%.","normal":"Typical dual-fuel cap < £1,700/yr and next forecast change < +5%."}},{"id":"uk-weather","name":"UK weather warnings","domain":"uk","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["metoffice"],"why":"Met Office warnings are the official signal for disruption to travel, power and safety in the UK.","drivers":"Storms, heavy rain, snow and ice, heat, fog, thunderstorms.","rubric":{"alert":"Any red warning in force.","watch":"Widespread yellow or any amber warning in force.","normal":"No warnings, or only localised yellow warnings."}},{"id":"nhs-pressure","name":"NHS & respiratory","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Winter respiratory waves and NHS capacity directly affect access to care for everyone in the UK.","drivers":"Flu, COVID, RSV, norovirus, staffing, strikes.","rubric":{"alert":"High or very high flu activity nationally, or widespread critical incidents.","watch":"Respiratory activity above baseline and rising, or several trusts in critical incidents.","normal":"Respiratory activity at baseline and no widespread critical incidents."}},{"id":"uk-threat-level","name":"UK terrorism threat level","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"The official MI5 assessment of the likelihood of a terrorist attack in the UK.","drivers":"Intelligence assessment by JTAC.","rubric":{"alert":"Severe or Critical.","watch":"Substantial.","normal":"Low or Moderate."}},{"id":"uk-disruption","name":"UK strikes & disruption","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"Strikes and infrastructure failures in rail, health, ports and power disrupt daily life and the economy.","drivers":"Pay disputes, infrastructure failures, cyber incidents, weather.","rubric":{"alert":"Multiple simultaneous national strikes, or nationwide infrastructure failure.","watch":"National strike in one sector or major infrastructure disruption.","normal":"No national-scale strikes or disruption this week."}},{"id":"uk-supply-margins","name":"GB energy supply margins","domain":"uk","tier":"daily","horizon":"acute","metrics":[],"why":"When gas or electricity margins tighten, Britain risks price spikes and, at worst, controlled disconnections in winter.","drivers":"Gas imports and storage, wind output, interconnectors, plant outages, cold weather.","rubric":{"alert":"A Gas Deficit Warning, a high risk of demand control notice, or demand control used.","watch":"NESO issues an Electricity Margin Notice or capacity market notice, or National Gas issues a Gas Margins Notice.","normal":"NESO and National Gas report adequate margins; no notices issued."}},{"id":"uk-floods","name":"UK flood warnings","domain":"uk","tier":"fast","horizon":"acute","metrics":["ea_floods"],"why":"Flooding is the UK's most common natural hazard; Environment Agency flood warnings are separate from Met Office weather warnings.","drivers":"Heavy rain, saturated ground, storm surges, high river levels.","rubric":{"alert":"Any severe flood warning (danger to life) in force in the UK.","watch":"10 or more flood warnings in force in England, or major flooding in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.","normal":"No severe flood warnings and fewer than 10 Environment Agency flood warnings in force."}}],"licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."}}